Retail paint and wallpaper market dynamics forecast
Life cycles of materials Replacement & Redecoration processes drive long term market changes
Wallcoverings Market Dynamics.
A wallcoverings company having interest in paint, wallpapers and other decorative materials was anxious to see how the long term development of the market was likely to shape forecast demand for its products.
We set about developing simultaneously, a market research programme to investigate the choices people made for decoration of their homes and a mathematical model (simulation) of the corresponding market to link the expected market research data to a quantified explanation of behaviour. The intention was then to use it to extrapolate trends into the future on the basis of rational causal mechanisms rather than statistical data trend tracking. The market research turned out to be difficult as we found how little people could remember about the changes they made in their homes over relatively short periods.
With these components and some reasonable estimates of product lifetimes in actual use, we made a model that showed the aging process (wall demographics) and a transition process (rather like a Markov process transition matrix) for walls coming up for redecoration and being assigned to their new coverings.
From the model, and some of the market survey data, we were able to see the way the market would shift over the years. We saw a move towards a particular class of product and over the next few years it was borne out. Of course, that might have been luck, but I like to think it was a good model of the compelling force of reality.
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