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Market Forecasting and Micro-economics Consultant. Simulation, modeling, dynamic systems, operations research methods applied to business and micro-economics. Dr.M.J.McCann: Consulting |
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Market Forecasting in Real Cases My experience with micro-economics and business dynamics was triggered by the work of Jay Forrester on Industrial Dynamics, which took advantage of experience and knowledge in dynamic systems behaviour, derived from engineering work. It was applied to problems or market behaviour, looking at the growth of markets and the corresponding effect on a corporation participating in them. In some cases the real means of influencing the customers wasn't always apparent, nor, perhaps, the persistent effects of brand loyalty or the effects of product lifetime and replacement choices. Such effects could be incorporated in dynamic models and the effects checked against previous experience to merge a common sense understanding with an engineering approach to making models internally consistent and quantified. Then, given some confidence that the key processes had been identified, we could move on to making forecasts. A simple example was a projection of demand for retail paint. Instead of taking recent history and making a statistical extrapolation, or a marketing manager's optimistic forecasts, we looked at the surface areas to be painted (housing stock) and the lifetimes of paints on walls to make a projection for the market. It was good enough for resource and capital planning for a decade.
Example Applications
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Working with Clients
TimeScales and Complexity |
Links in website: Home/Index Page About Dr McCann Business & Commerce Chemical Industry Electrical Production & Process |
| Invitation. McCann can help if you have a
design or operational problem that needs some technical support that is outside your
team's experience, some quantitative assessment of what is really the cause of the
difficulties, some design alternatives or just a fresh look by an intelligent
interrogator. If you have a problem with the behaviour of a market sector, plant, process or item of equipment and would like to get a quantitative handle on it to improve yield or optimise performance, then contact me. I'm always ready to give a little time to discuss a new puzzle, in confidence, of course. We'll only worry about fees when there is some defined work. I can be flexible about how I work with you. Top |
Dr M.J.McCann, POB 902, Chadds Ford PA 19317 USA. T: 1 302 654-2953 M: 1 302 377-1508 (Cell) E: mjmccann@iee.org |
| Request. Please let me know how you found this website and your interests by following this feedback link. Thank you | Date: 2010.12.30 File: markets.htm |