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Quantification, control and understanding.
If you don't understand something, it's out of control.
If you can't quantify the causal relationships, you don't understand it.
My (MJMcC) contribution is to develop the quantified models that give you understanding.
The result may be a simulation you can experiment with, a design
calculation method you can use or simply guidance as to practical alternative actions.
Notice the emphasis on 'practical'. Despite the (apparent) devotion to
applied mathematics, I'm a "hands on" engineer, through and through. Trained the
old-fashioned way as an apprentice, the guiding theme was "if you can't do it
yourself, then you've no right to ask anyone else to do it".
Why Models?
Business interactions in markets and in economics, engineering designs,
control systems and manufacturing and supply systems can become complex. If
they get so complex that a manager or designer can't estimate the
consequences of an action or change in a direct, straight forward, one step at a time
manner, due to effects of feedback or closed loop or recycle paths, then
some organised quantified approach is needed to elucidate the real
underlying causality. The problem of assessment of effects is made much more
difficult if the feedback paths take time to respond; the dynamics of the
system have to be accounted for as well. That's my area of expertise. When such a
system has been described in quantitative terms you have a model. Then you can understand
and assess numerically the effects of changes (the "what ifs") and options. You
have quantified the causal relationships.
The consultant as teacher.
It seems to me (MJMcC) that the role of consultant is also that
of teacher. It is appropriate that those with experience and knowledge to hand on
should try to pass it on to the people with whom they work. In the process the teacher
learns even more so there's no loss to anyone. I've been a teacher at undergraduate and
graduate level both in the UK and the USA. I enjoy teaching and take care to explain
whatever I do to my clients. Ultimately, they have to make choices for themselves; the
consultant can really only advise. Since it is essential that clients understand the work
done for them and assess it for themselves, the consultant must be a teacher.
Dealing with Complexity: Keep it simple.
All mathematical modelling is based on an argument by analogy. The
mathematical model is not the same thing as the part of the real world it represents. No
one can prove it so. The validity of any quantitative analysis depends on how closely the
numerical model and the reality match. We adopt the principle of parsimony, Occam's razor,
and start with the simplest model that has a good chance of being complex enough.
The skill comes in being able to make good estimates (guesses?) early in the modelling
work as to how much detail will be needed to get the quality of the match sufficient for
the decisions which have to be taken. That's where the experience counts. I 've been doing
it successfully for more than 30 years.
A simulation or mathematical model can become so complex that the mind
boggles! The people using it can no longer follow or quite explain how it behaves the way
it does. It may be a size issue, but is more likely to be due to strong non-linear cross
coupling between components. Pushing on with additional complexity, which the intended
users, the clients, can't assimilate isn't likely to be much help.
Industrial Folklore and the Compelling Force of Reality.
In any established industrial environment, where manufacturing
processes have been developed and improved over the years by trial and error, there appear
beliefs, "industrial folklore", about how things work, about how processes must
be run to make good product. From one shift to another, the supervisors change settings;
engineers debate about the importance of controlling particular variables; the customers
say the product has changed but everyone says we still make it exactly the same way!
Sometimes the debate about it becomes so heated that it obstructs
rational thought. If this is the case, then the circulating industrial folklore, with its
inconsistencies needs to be rationalised. Our experience has been that as we develop a
working, internally consistent mathematical (necessarily quantified) model or simulation
and share it with people, the wilder ideas in the folklore somehow disappear and a shared
view, soundly based on the real underlying physics or economics becomes a basis for guided
improvement.
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Invitation. McCann can help if you have a
design or operational problem that needs some technical support that is outside your
team's experience, some quantitative assessment of what is really the cause of the
difficulties, some design alternatives or just a fresh look by an intelligent
interrogator.
If you have a problem with the behaviour of a market sector, plant, process or item of
equipment and would like to get a quantitative handle on it to improve yield or optimise
performance, then contact us. We are always ready to give a little time
to discuss a new puzzle, in confidence,
of course. We'll only worry about fees
when we have some defined work. We can be flexible
about how we work with you. Top
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McCann Science,
POB 902,
Chadds Ford PA
19317 USA.
T: 1 302 654-2953
F: 1 302 429 9458
E: mjmccann@iee.org
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